Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
